Brazil is nearing a catastrophic situation, if it is not right in the middle of it already, of no longer being able to cope with new COVID-19 patients due to exhaustion of its existing capacity in intensive care beds and ventilators.

 

Despite the uncertainty generated by the lack of update of its number of critical patients – this number has remained at 8 318 for several days (as had happened in Spain and in the Netherlands at some point of this pandemic, and therefore not a unique finding from Brazil in this regard), and also despite divergence in the number of new daily cases in Brazil in recent days among different sources, the fact is that new records are happening day after day at a time when the country’s capacity in key resources is already approaching its limit.

 

Therefore, ALERT’s estimate is that Brazil’s full capacity in intensive care beds will be reached by Monday or Tuesday (for a 50% allocation of this key resource to COVID-19) and even if 80% of all existing intensive care beds are allocated to COVID-19 full capacity will be reached by Friday next week.

 

On the other hand, Brazil still has available ventilators for another 30 days if new daily cases stop increasing. Consequently, it is imperative to:

 

1. Continue to have the use of masks being mandatory and mobilize the Brazilian population to the seriousness of the situation;

 

2. Create immediately additional capacity in intensive care beds using existing inpatient wards or newly assembled hospitals.

 

Even if Portugal would send to Brazil all its free ventilators it would only allow Brazil to cope for another day and a half.

 

For more information on this estimate click here.

 

jorge.guimaraes@alert-online.com