Estimated number of days until full capacity is reached at current allocation to COVID-19 patients of ICU beds (50% in the public and private sectors) and ventilators (60% in the public and private sectors) considering current 3-day average of new daily cases.			Non-applicable at the moment due to over occupancy in this scenario.	8
NOTE: This estimate takes the number of current critical patients into consideration, which number has not been updated by official sources since at least 21 April 2020. Based on data analysis, ALERT provides below its own estimate of the current number of critical patients in Brazil (see Assumptions and Assumptions History below).
27 November 2020			ICU beds	Ventilators
Estimated capacity for adult patients
Days until full capacity
Variation in number of days before full capacity is reached relative to previous day			0	-2
Estimated number of days until full capacity is reached if resource allocation to COVID-19 patients is increased from current levels to 80%b of ICU beds and ventilators considering current 3-day average of new daily cases			1	12
Estimated number of days until full capacity is reached if resource allocation to COVID-19 patients is increased from current levels to 90% of ICU beds and ventilators considering current 3-day average of new daily cases			2	14
Estimated number of days until full capacity is reached at current allocation to COVID-19 patients of ICU beds (50% in the public and private sectors) and ventilators (60% in the public and private sectors) if 3-day average of new daily cases changes from currentl level to 1 000 new daily cases.			Non-applicable at the moment due to over occupancy in this scenario.	Non-applicable at the moment due to over occupancy in this scenario.
Estimated number of days until full capacity is reached at current allocation to COVID-19 patients of ICU beds (50% in the public and private sectors) and ventilators (60% in the public and private sectors) if 3-day average of new daily cases changes from current level to 70 869 (same value as the daily peak of new cases registered on 29 July 2020).			Non-applicable at the moment due to over occupancy in this scenario.	4
Estimated number of days until full capacity is reached if resource allocation to COVID-19 patients is increased from current levels to 80% of ICU beds and ventilators if 3-day average of new daily cases changes from current level to 70 869 (same value as the daily peak of new cases registered on 29 July 2020).			0	7
Resources
Estimated free capacity considering current resource alocation to COVID-19 patients			-13920	24510
Estimated free capacity considering total available resources			8738	55482
Current occupancy for adult patients
Current COVID-19 ICU patients (ALERT's ESTIMATE based on localized assumptions of 9 June 2020)			36579
Estimated number of COVID-19 patients in mechanical ventilation (75% of COVID-19 patients in ICU need mechanical ventilation: see Assumption #8 below)				21947
Other key indicators
Average number of new cases in the last 3 days: 38 855
Peak of new daily cases: 70 869 registered 29 July 2020
Current capacity for adult patients
Total current capacity reserved for adult COVID-19 patients			22659	46457
Total current capacity for adult patients			45317	77429
SUS (Brazilian Public/Private Sistema Único de Saúde)
Total SUS capacity allocated to adult COVID-19 patients			14782	35209
Total SUS capacity			29563	58681
Initial SUS capacity (March 2020)			15974	46663
Newly developed SUS capacity			13589	12018
Newly installed (ICU beds) / Purchased (ventilators)			13589	11798
Donations				220
Loan
Private sector
Total capacity private sector capacity allocated to adult COVID-19 patients			7877	11249
Total private sector (Non-SUS) capacity			15754	18748
Initial private sector (Non-SUS) capacity			15754	18748
Newly developed private sector (Non-SUS) capacity
Capacity history
No history available yet
Announced future capacity for adult patients
Pending delivery of ordered items				5541
Pending delivery of announced donations				800
Total when all ordered items are delivered				82683
Assumptions	Reference	Time of data collection	Sample size	Date of reference
General assumptions
The average number of new cases from the last three days is used for forecasting.	ALERT's approach.	5 May 2020		5 May 2020
Mechanical ventilation is normally only provided in ICUs. However, if total ICU capacity is reached, temporary ICUs can be created to accommodate additional ventilators.
Approximately 25% of the Brazilian population use a non-SUS health system.	https://exame.com/brasil/mais-procurado-sus-tem-apenas-44-dos-leitos-de-uti-do-pais/			13 March 2020
22.3% of the Brazilian population has access to private health plans	https://apublica.org/2020/05/enquanto-leitos-de-uti-do-sus-chegam-ao-limite-ha-vagas-nos-hospitais-privados/	December 2019		21 May 2020
Definition of critical COVID-19 patient in Brazil
Criteria for admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) are clinical instability, i.e. the need for support for organ dysfunctions and intensive monitoring.	https://sistemas.cfm.org.br/normas/visualizar/resolucoes/BR/2016/2156			17 November 2016
Priority criteria: Priority 1 - Patients who need life support interventions, with a high probability of recovery and without any limitation of therapeutic support; Priority 2 - Patients who need intensive monitoring due to high risk of needing immediate intervention and without any limitation of therapeutic support; Priority 3 - Patients who need life support interventions with low probability of recovery or with limited therapeutic intervention; Priority 4 - Patients who need intensive monitoring due to high risk of needing immediate intervention but with limited therapeutic intervention; Priority 5 - Patients with a terminal illness or dying with no possibility of recovery. In general, these patients are not suitable for admission to the ICU (unless they are potential organ donors). However, their admission can be justified on an exceptional basis, considering the peculiarities of the case and conditioned to the criteria of the intensive care physician.	https://www.segurancadopaciente.com.br/qualidade-assist/criterios-para-admissao-na-uti/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=c936c24c7ff2d2df57f398e582f3c98b8a7ce38f-1591082373-0-AWYX9L2tUuRn7ctsaXcfjtWxy6YEq4ECq21zpYMfPwMboC2Co_JIQrxaLxLqdpY0aTiyxYPWZsvQvhkaSoogePo0Jp5Z5kD36ckwIv1aKB20IY4xHC_tdeyI1lDEYFkrA7hr1PZDavA1F7wZtbYGPVMBhSybxtqem-j4B2CraIlBPggjFz0shqlGbUUP0iYemNxnWbWUx3WsBukaoXP83lhTYogzMZw0nms5ZReADI4QpzvHnIPivcTI_jhpTKrUuH_sR-GBISZ3P9Jc8EwNG37E2X6Q8byKhWqAa0u7JjTTBe2NAYA03ywzKk6RmooxayS_h2FkcPmjugHP6sgmUygy_dIQmZyKnRzMerYm82S3jzcI-iimSaZgyOCp0jEAzUdSYTU3lAivYOBjwQyAaJr-eT5WGKhebhw2w8OrUA4l6fCM_gZpqmURFEzfeCw1nhj_cIFpfL3tNTwOXFaOqJIj1YIneT507XrNwmBo1K4u1_llosTUOqc3ttQ934dAodDYThgffVg1bEz95Dblcc_i6f9aqKwLzcCXA_OG5WRc			17 October 2020
	https://www.editoraroncarati.com.br/v2/phocadownload/CFM_resolucao_2156_2016.pdf			17 November 2016
Critical or seriously ill patients are defined as those who present instability or risk of instability of a vital system with risk of death. These patients may suffer deterioration of one or more functions of vital organs, presenting cardiovascular, respiratory, neurological, renal, metabolic instability or pathologies that can lead to instability of these systems.	https://sistemas.cfm.org.br/normas/visualizar/resolucoes/BR/2020/2271			23 April 2020
Definition of Intensive Care Unit (ICU)
ICU is a hospital environment with an organized system to offer vital support of high complexity, with multiple modalities of monitoring and advanced organic support to maintain life during clinical conditions of extreme severity and risk of death from organ failure. This assistance is provided continuously, 24 hours a day, by a specialized multidisciplinary team. Therefore, these units aim to assist patients of greater severity, who present instability or risk of vital clinical instability and are at risk of death. Thus, they need constant vigilance and continuous treatment, according to the evolution of the disease, so that they can obtain a good result.	https://sistemas.cfm.org.br/normas/visualizar/resolucoes/BR/2020/2271			23 April 2020
Definition of ICU discharge criteria
Patient whose clinical condition is controlled and stabilized; Patient for whom all curative/restorative therapeutic possibilities have been exhausted and who can remain in the hospital outside the ICU in a dignified manner and, if possible, together with his family.	https://sistemas.cfm.org.br/normas/visualizar/resolucoes/BR/2016/2156			17 November 2016
Criteria for death certificate by COVID-19 in Brazil
Any death confirmed for COVID-19 by the Death Verification Service (SVO) must be notified immediately to the local surveillance system; The local epidemiological surveillance system must also know when the cause of death is inconclusive or ruled out for COVID-19.	https://www.saude.gov.br/images/pdf/2020/marco/25/manejo-corpos-coronavirus-versao1-25mar20-rev5.pdf			25 March 2020
Confirmation of death by COVID-19 and inclusion in State and National statistics depends on the result of laboratory tests that testify to the presence of the virus.	https://www.aosfatos.org/noticias/como-sao-notificadas-infeccoes-e-mortes-por-covid-19-no-brasil-e-por-que-os-numeros-podem-ser-maiores/			31 March 2020
Laboratory testing for coronavirus detection should be performed if the suspected COVID-19 was not cleared up while the patient was still alive.	https://www.aosfatos.org/noticias/como-sao-notificadas-infeccoes-e-mortes-por-covid-19-no-brasil-e-por-que-os-numeros-podem-ser-maiores/			31 March 2020
Official numbers include suspected cases - when the doctor certifies that the clinical condition is compatible with the disease.	https://g1.globo.com/jornal-nacional/noticia/2020/05/27/prefeitura-do-rio-muda-o-criterio-para-contabilizar-o-numero-de-mortos-pelo-coronavirus.ghtml			27 May 2020
ICU beds assumptions
Allocation of 50% of ICU beds to COVID-19 patients in the public sector.
Allocation of 50% of ICU beds to COVID-19 patients in the private sector.
Assumption #1 15% of total COVID-19 patients from Brazil (not just hospitalized patients) will need to be admitted to ICU.				Comment this assumption
8 318 critical patients were already reported as of 21 April 2020.	https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/	22 March 2020 - 21 April 2020	41 901 cases were registered between 22 March 2020 and 21 Aprill 2020.	1 June 2020
	https://www.alert-online.com/news/covid-19pandemicdiary/spain-is-doing-something-very-right-brazil-the-next-focal-point-and-belgium%E2%80%99s-dea			23 April 2020
7% of hospitalized patients were admitted to ICU in a hospital (Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital) in Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext	24 December 2019 - 26 January 2020	710	24 February 2020
9% of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were admitted to ICU in Lombardy study, Italy	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365?resultClick=1	20 February 2020 - 18 March 2020	17713	6 April 2020
8.7% of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were admitted to the ICU, California study, USA	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765303	1 March 2020 - 31 March 2020	1299	24 April 2020
14,2% of hospitalized patients were admitted to ICU in New York study, USA	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?guestAccessKey=906e474e-0b94-4e0e-8eaa-606ddf0224f5&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=042220	1 March 2020 - 4 April 2020	2634	22 April 2020
22% of hospitalized patients were admitted to ICU in New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	1150	19 May 2020
26% of hospitalized patients were admitted to ICU (135 patients from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 patients from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) in Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3.pdf	29 December 2019 - 31 January 2020	191	9 March 2020
30% of hospitalized patients were admitted to ICU, California study, USA	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765303	1 March 2020 - 31 March 2020	377	24 April 2020
Assumption #2 8-day average length of stay in ICU.				Comment this assumption
8 days ICU average length of stay, Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3.pdf	29 December 2019 - 31 January 2020	191	9 March 2020
9 days in Seattle study, USA	https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500?articleTools=true	24 February - 9 March 2020	24	30 March 2020
9 days in Lombardy study, Italy	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365?resultClick=1	20 February 2020 - 18 March 2020	1591	6 April 2020
14 days in Danish study	https://ugeskriftet.dk/files/scientific_article_files/2020-04/a04200232.pdf	11 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	16	27 April 2020
18-day average stay under invasive mechanical ventilation, New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	203	19 May 2020
7.2 days ICU average length of stay, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	10583	18 May 2020
7.6 days ICU average length of stay, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	16399	3 June 2020
7.4 days ICU average length of stay, in Brazil benchmarking, in public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	1684	18 May 2020
7.7 days ICU average length of stay, in Brazil benchmarking, in public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	2936	3 June 2020
7.1 days ICU average length of stay, in Brazil benchmarking, in private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	8899	18 May 2020
7.6 days ICU average length of stay, in Brazil benchmarking, in private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	13462	3 June 2020
Assumption #3 14-day average length of stay in ICU for all ICU-admitted surviving patients.				Comment this assumption
7 days ICU average length of stay for surviving patients, Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3.pdf	29 December 2019 - 31 January 2020	137	9 March 2020
8 days ICU average length of stay for surviving patients, Lombardy study, Italy	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365?resultClick=1	20 February 20020 - 18 March 2020	256	6 April 2020
8 days ICU average length of stay for surviving patients UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland)	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	3271	8 May 2020
14 days ICU average length of stay for surviving patients, Seattle study, USA	https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500?articleTools=true	24 February 2020 - 9 March 2020	24	30 March 2020
18-day average stay under invasive mechanical ventilation, New York study, USA.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	203	19 May 2020
Assumption #4 8-day average length of stay in ICU for all ICU-admitted non-surviving patients.				Comment this assumption
7 days ICU average length of stay for non-surviving patients, Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext	24 December 2019 - 26 January 2020	31	24 February 2020
7 days ICU average length of stay for non-surviving patients, Lombardy study, Italy	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365?resultClick=1	20 February 2020 - 18 March 2020	405	6 April 2020
8 days ICU average length of stay for non-surviving patients UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland)	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	2872	8 May 2020
8 days ICU average length of stay for non-surviving patients, Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3.pdf	29 December 2019 - 31 January 2020	54	9 March 2020
9-day average of hospitalization prior to death, New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	101	19 May 2020
Assumption #5 20-day average duration of stay in ICU for all surviving patients who undergo mechanical ventilation.				Comment this assumption
This assumption considers 1 day of stay in ICU before mechanical ventilation is initiated and another for recovery from the same.
15 days in UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland) - also includes ECMO patients	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	1768	8 May 2020
27-day average stay under invasive mechanical ventilation, New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		19 May 2020
Assumption #6 10 days average length of stay in ICU for non-surviving patients from mechanical ventilation, ECMO and other advanced life support systems.				Comment this assumption
This assumption considers 1 day of stay in ICU before mechanical ventilation is initiated.
9 days in UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland) - also includes ECMO patients	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	2519	8 May 2020
10-day average stay under invasive mechanical ventilation for non-surviving patients, New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	83	19 May 2020
Assumption #7 65% of surviving COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU.				Comment this assumption
21.1% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU died, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	10583	18 May 2020
22.6% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU died, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	16399	3 June 2020
36.2% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU died, public sector, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	1684	18 May 2020
38.4% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU died, public sector, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	2936	3 June 2020
18.5% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU died, private sector, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	8899	18 May 2020
19.5% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU died, private sector, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	13462	3 June 2020
Assumption #15 85% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU who do not receive mechanical ventilation will survive.				Comment this assumption
11% of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU who did not receive mechanical ventilation died, New York study, USA. Some of the ICU admitted patients remained in ICU at the time data collection ended (4 April 2020).	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?guestAccessKey=906e474e-0b94-4e0e-8eaa-606ddf0224f5&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=042220	1 March 2020 - 4 April 2020	2314	22 April 2020
Assumption #16 Average length of stay in ICU for patients who did not undergo mechanical ventilation				Comment this assumption
8 days	ALERT assumption
Ventilator assumptions
Allocation of 60% of ventilators to COVID-19 patients in the public sector.
Allocation of 60% of ventilators to COVID-19 patients in the private sector.
Assumption #8 60% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation.				Comment this assumption
43% in Wuhan study, China	https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1091	13 January 2020 - 12 February 2020	274	17 March 2020
71% in Washington study, USA	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763485	20 February 2020 - 5 March 2020	21	19 March 2020
71% in Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext	24 December 2019 - 26 January 2020	52	24 February 2020
75% in Seattle study, USA	https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500?articleTools=true	24 February - 9 March 2020	24	30 March 2020
79% in New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	257	19 May 2020
94% in Vitoria study, Spain	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352556820300643?via%3Dihub	4 March 2020 - 31 March 2020	48	9 April 2020
100% in Denmark study	https://ugeskriftet.dk/files/scientific_article_files/2020-04/a04200232.pdf	11 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	16	27 April 2020
39.6% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	10583	18 May 2020
41.8% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	16399	3 June 2020
65.6% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	1684	18 May 2020
66.5% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	2936	3 June 2020
35.1% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	8899	18 May 2020
36.8% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	13462	3 June 2020
Assumption #9 6% of COVID-19 patients will need mechanical ventilation (8% of total patients will go to ICU; 75% of ICU patients will require mechanical ventilation).				Comment this assumption
12% of hospitalized patients in New York study, USA	https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184?guestAccessKey=906e474e-0b94-4e0e-8eaa-606ddf0224f5&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=042220	1 March 2020 - 4 April 2020	2634	22 April 2020
17% of hospitalized patients in Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3.pdf	29 December 2019 - 31 January 2020	191	9 March 2020
Assumption #10 50% of patients who would benefit from mechanical ventilation either do not qualify for it by medical criteria or have not reached medical care centers on time (does not interfere with estimates provided above).				Comment this assumption
According to news from 9 May 2020, nearly 40% of deaths took place in elderly homes (450 deaths out of 1135 total deaths, as of 9 May 2020); another 10% may not have reached the hospital in time or have not qualified for mechanical ventilation.	https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/09/pais/lares-contam-450-obitos-por-covid-19/noticia/192304/	February / March - 9 May 2020	1135	09 May 2020
According to news from 23 April 2020, almost 50% of those who died with COVID-19 were residents of long-term care facilities.	https://www.publico.pt/2020/04/23/mundo/noticia/metade-mortes-europeias-lares-idosos-tragedia-humana-inimaginavel-oms-1913614	February / March - 23 April 2020		23 April 2020
Assumption #11 10 days on average in mechanical ventilation.				Comment this assumption
10 days in Seattle study, Washington	https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500?articleTools=true	24 February 2020 - 9 March 2020	24	30 March 2020
10 days in UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland) - also includes ECMO patients	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	4287	8 May 2020
18 days in New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	203	19 May 2020
9.7 days in mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarkingtd>	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	4190	18 May 2020
10.2 days in mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	6854	3 June 2020
8.5 days in mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, in public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	1104	18 May 2020
8.6 days in mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, in public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	1952	3 June 2020
10.1 days in mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, in private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	3124	18 May 2020
10.7 days in mechanical ventilation, in Brazil benchmarking, in private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	4954	3 June 2020
Assumption #12 32% of surviving patients from mechanical ventilation.				Comment this assumption
19% of patients on mechanical ventilators survived in Wuhan study, China	https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30079-5/fulltext	24 December 2019 - 26 January 2020	52	24 February 2020
22% of patients on mechanical ventilators survived in Wuhan study, China	https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1091	13 January 2020 - 12 February 2020	119	17 March 2020
41.2% of patients on mechanical ventilators survived in UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland)	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	3508	8 May 2020
56% of patients on mechanical ventilators survived in Danish study	https://ugeskriftet.dk/files/scientific_article_files/2020-04/a04200232.pdf	11 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	16	27 April 2020
66.2% of patients on mechanical ventilators died, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	4190	18 May 2020
65.5% of patients on mechanical ventilators died, in Brazil benchmarking	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	6855	3 June 2020
69.9% of patients on mechanical ventilators died, in Brazil benchmarking, in public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	1104	18 May 2020
70.5% of patients on mechanical ventilators died, in Brazil benchmarking, in public sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	1952	3 June 2020
65% of patients on mechanical ventilators died, in Brazil benchmarking, in private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 15 May 2020	3124	18 May 2020
63.6% of patients on mechanical ventilators died, in Brazil benchmarking, in private sector	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020	4954	3 June 2020
Assumption #13 18 days on average in mechanical ventilation for surviving patients from the same				Comment this assumption
Assuming 1-day stay in ICU before mechanical ventilation was initiated and another 2-days in ICU after removal from mechanical ventilation.
15-day average stay in ICU for surviving patients from mechanical ventilation in UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland) - also includes ECMO patients	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	1768	8 May 2020
27-day average stay under invasive mechanical ventilation, New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		19 May 2020
Assumption #14 9 days on average in mechanical ventilation for non-surviving patients from the same.				Comment this assumption
Assuming 1-day stay in ICU before mechanical ventilation was initiated.
9-day average stay in ICU for non-surviving patients from mechanical ventilation in UK study (patients from England, Wales and Northern Ireland) - also includes ECMO patients	https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports	March 2020 - 7 May 2020	2519	8 May 2020
10-day average in mechanical ventilation for non-surviving patients, New York study, USA	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	84	19 May 2020
Assumptions history	Reference	Time of data collection	Sample size	Date of change
Assumption #1 CHANGED TO: 15 % of ICU patients in Brazil will need admission into ICU. EARLIER VERSION: 8 % of ICU patients in Brazil will need admission into ICU.	ALERT-ONLINE.COM (unpublished data analysis)	22 March 2020 - 21 April 2020	41 901 cases were registered between 22 March 2020 and 21 Aprill 2020.	Changed 1 June 2020
Assumption #2 CHANGED TO: 11 days average length of stay in ICU. EARLIER VERSION: 9 days average length of stay in ICU.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		Changed 22 May 2020
Assumption #2 CHANGED TO: 8 days average length of stay in ICU. EARLIER VERSION: 11 days average length of stay in ICU.	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020		Changed 9 June 2020
Assumption #3 CHANGED TO: 14 days average length of stay in ICU for all ICU-admitted surviving patients. EARLIER VERSION: 10 days average length of stay in ICU for all ICU-admitted surviving patients.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		Changed 22 May 2020
Assumption #5 CHANGED TO: 20 days average length of stay in ICU for surviving patients from mechanical ventilation, ECMO and other advanced life support systems. EARLIER VERSION: 15 days average length of stay in ICU for surviving patients from mechanical ventilation, ECMO and other advanced life support systems.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		Changed 22 May 2020
Assumption #6 CHANGED TO: 10 days average length of stay in ICU for non-surviving patients from mechanical ventilation, ECMO and other advanced life support systems. EARLIER VERSION: 9 days average length of stay in ICU for non-surviving patients from mechanical ventilation, ECMO and other advanced life support systems.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		Changed 22 May 2020
Assumption #7 CHANGED TO: 65% of surviving COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU. EARLIER VERSION: 45% of surviving COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU.	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020		Changed 9 June 2020
Assumption #8 CHANGED TO: 60% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation. EARLIER VERSION: 75% of COVID-19 patients in ICU will need mechanical ventilation.	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020		Changed 9 June 2020
Assumption #11 CHANGED TO: 10 days on average in mechanical ventilation. EARLIER VERSION: 15 days average duration of stay in mechanical ventilation.	http://www.utisbrasileiras.com.br/sari-covid-19/benchmarking-covid-19/	1 March 2020 - 31 May 2020		Changed 9 June 2020
Assumption #11 CHANGED TO: 15 days on average in mechanical ventilation. EARLIER VERSION: 10 days average duration of stay in mechanical ventilation.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	203	Changed 22 May 2020
Assumption #13 CHANGED TO: 18 days on average in mechanical ventilation for surviving patients from the same. EARLIER VERSION: 13-day average in mechanical ventilation for surviving patients from the same.	https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020		Changed 22 May 2020
Assumption #14 CHANGED TO: 9 days on average in mechanical ventilation for non-surviving patients from the same. EARLIER VERSION: 8-day average duration of mechanical ventilation in non-surviving patients from the same.	Following New York study, USA (https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31189-2.pdf).	2 March 2020 - 1 April 2020	83	Changed 22 May 2020

Date	Source	Source Date
28 April 2020	https://www.sabado.pt/portugal/detalhe/covid-19-ocupacao-de-camas-de-cuidados-intensivos-e-de-54	28 April 2020
28 April 2020	https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/coronavirus/2020-04-28-57-das-camas-de-cuidados-intensivos-estao-ocupadas	28 April 2020
11 May 2020	https://www.dnoticias.pt/pais/cuidados-intensivos-com-taxa-de-ocupacao-estavel-em-portugal-LN6249973	11 May 2020

Quantity	From	Date	Source	Source Date
11	Hospital Pedro Hispano	05 May 2020	https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/05/pais/covid-19-portugal-ultrapassa-as-620-camas-de-cuidados-intensivos/noticia/191791/	05 May 2020
79		09 May 2020	https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/coronavirus/detalhe/governo-quer-aproximar-hospitais-a-media-de-115-camas-de-cuidados-intensivos-por-100-mil-habitantes	09 May 2020
		09 May 2020	https://rr.sapo.pt/2020/05/09/pais/sns-tem-mais-35-de-camas-em-cuidados-intensivos-mas-ainda-esta-abaixo-da-media/noticia/192306/	9 May 2020

Quantity	From	Date	Source	Source Date
144	China	5 April 2020	https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/144-ventiladores-chegaram-a-portugal_v1218496	5 April 2020
66	China	19 April 2020	https://www.jn.pt/nacional/chegaram-66-bentiladores-40-ficam-na-regiao-norte-e-centro-12092862.html	20 April 2020
		19 April 2020	https://www.publico.pt/2020/04/19/politica/noticia/voo-65-ventiladores-material-medico-chegou-domingo-lisboa-1912928	19 April 2020
		19 April 2020	https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/coronavirus/2020-04-20-60-dos-ventiladores-que-chegaram-da-China-sao-para-a-regiao-Norte-e-Centro?fbclid=IwAR0NJxoMIEckl512y2khQPiY0iQG-OMGUzIwld4EBY2Iernnc7Z6Di5FSsM	20 April 2020
44	China	21 May 2020	https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/governo-diz-que-ja-chegaram-a-portugal-mais-44-ventiladores-vindos-da-china-591960	22 May 2020
60	China	24 May 2020	https://www.cmjornal.pt/sociedade/detalhe/chegaram-mais-60-ventiladores-a-portugal	24 May 2020
		24 May 2020	https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/pais/1488238/covid-19-ja-comecou-a-conferencia-da-dgs-acompanhe-aqui	24 May 2020

Quantity	From	Date	Source	Source Date
100	CEiiA	8 May 2020	https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/coronavirus/2020-05-08-Os-primeiros-100-ventiladores-portugueses-produzidos-em-tempo-recorde	8 May 2020
			https://eco.sapo.pt/reportagem/do-ceiia-nascem-os-primeiros-100-ventiladores-desenvolver-um-produto-para-salvar-vidas-e-um-projeto-repleto-de-paixao/	2 May 2020
			https://www.jn.pt/nacional/ventilador-fabricado-em-matosinhos-e-comparavel-aos-melhores--12153094.html	5 May 2020
100	Macau's entrepreneur	4 May 2020	https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/pais/1473578/empresaria-de-macau-emily-kuo-vong-doa-ventiladores-a-portugal	7 May 2020
		2 April 2020	https://covid19.min-saude.pt/portugal-duplica-capacidade-de-ventilacao-para-responder-a-covid-19/	2 April 2020
107		2 April 2020	https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=53&v=9bV821h8jxE&feature=emb_title	2 April 2020
40	Benfica, Câmara Municipal de Losboa e a Universidade de Lisboa	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
29	Galp e a sua Fundação	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
78	Investigadora chinesa	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
3	Santuário de Fátima	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
10	Presidente do Moreirense	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
55	Município do Porto	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
6	Municípios do distrito de Évora	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
30	Comunidade Intermunicipal do Algarve (AMAL)	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
5	Câmara de Oliveira do Hospital	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
6	Associação de Municípios das Terras de Santa Maria – Arouca, Espinho, Oliveira de Azeméis, S. João da Madeira, Santa Maria da Feira e Vale Cambra	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
10	Câmara Municipal da Mealhada	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
11	Comunidade Intermunicipal do Tâmega e Sousa (CIM do Tâmega e Sousa), em articulação com os seus 11 municípios – Amarante, Baião, Castelo de Paiva, Celorico de Basto, Cinfães, Felgueiras, Lousada, Marco de Canaveses, Paços de Ferreira, Penafiel e Resende –, e a Câmara Municipal de Paredes	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020
10	Administração da Unidade Local de Saúde do Alto Minho (ULSAM)	27 March 2020	https://observador.pt/especiais/governo-comprou-535-ventiladores-agora-e-preciso-ter-equipas-e-decidir-como-vao-ser-distribuidos/	27 March 2020

Quantity	From	Date	Source	Source Date
		2 April 2020	https://covid19.min-saude.pt/portugal-duplica-capacidade-de-ventilacao-para-responder-a-covid-19/	2 April 2020
140	Air Liquid	1 March 2020	https://observador.pt/2020/04/05/pressao-sobre-hospitais-esta-a-aumentar-ministra-da-saude-faz-apelo-a-setor-social-para-ajudar-a-libertar-camas/	5 April 2020

Quantity	From	Date	Source	Source Date
		20 April 2020	https://youtu.be/xSddku8F3oU	21 April 2020
		20 April 2020	There is conflicting information about the number of ordered ventilatores. Taking into consideration the latest information, we assumed that 508 ventilators was the actual number of ventilators for which an order was placed or accepted by the vendor (see YouTube link dated 20 April 2020 provided above).